Morocco’s 2026 outlook: BAM sees growth boosted by harvest and jobs

This update focuses on Bank Al-Maghrib 2026 outlook. Bank Al-Maghrib is forecasting a solid rebound of the Moroccan economy in 2026, with growth expected at 4.4%, driven by a strong cereal harvest and several hundred thousand new jobs.

Bank Al-Maghrib 2026 outlook built on a 93-million-quintal harvest

The latest projections from Bank Al-Maghrib rest first and foremost on agriculture. The central bank expects cereal output of around 93 million quintals in 2026. This harvest would support a 16% increase in agricultural value added.

For households and investors, this scenario points to a more favourable environment in rural areas, better incomes for part of the population and, potentially, less pressure on some food prices.

However, Bank Al-Maghrib 2026 outlook remains cautious over the medium term. For 2027, the institution forecasts a 7.6% drop in agricultural value added, based on a return to what it considers an “average” cereal crop of 50 million quintals. In other words, 2026 is seen as a peak rather than a new normal.

Growth at 4.4% in 2026, then easing to 2.9%

Under the combined effect of this rebound in the primary sector, Bank Al-Maghrib 2026 outlook points to overall GDP growth of 4.4% in 2026. The following year, growth would ease back to 2.9%, closer to a more typical pace.

Non-agricultural activities, which form the backbone of Morocco’s urban and industrial economy, are set to slow in the short term. Their growth rate is expected to fall from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, before recovering towards 4% in 2027.

This slowdown is mainly linked to weaker-than-expected performance in some extractive and manufacturing industries. For Moroccans living abroad who track the macro picture before investing, buying property or planning a return, these figures signal an economy in transition, but with no abrupt downturn.

406,000 jobs created and unemployment edging lower

Despite the cooling in some sectors, the labour market remains relatively dynamic. According to the High Commission for Planning’s labour force survey for Q2 2026, the national economy created 406,000 net jobs over one year.

The national unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, standing at 11.9% in urban areas and 5.4% in rural regions. For families with relatives abroad, these shifts can influence very concrete decisions: a family member returning to Morocco, launching a small business locally, or buying a home in an area that appears to be generating employment.

Trade balance under pressure as investment drives imports

The favourable growth outlook does not erase underlying tensions. The trade balance remains under strain. Two main drivers are at play: high prices for energy-related inputs and the steady rise in imports of capital goods.

Purchases of raw materials are surging, with an increase of 53.4%. Imports of capital goods are expected to rise by 15.6%, reaching around 250.7 billion dirhams. These figures reflect a significant public and private investment push, with major projects that could generate new opportunities over the longer term.

To cope with these higher import bills, Morocco is counting on a robust export base, particularly in key industrial and services sectors. For Moroccans abroad, this means higher costs in the short run, but also a modernisation drive in the productive sector aimed at the future.

What this means for Moroccans living abroad

Without radically changing the picture, this case provides useful benchmarks for those considering investment or a gradual return to Morocco.

• A strong agricultural rebound in 2026 supporting overall growth.
• A more dynamic labour market, with 406,000 net jobs created.
• Persistent pressure on the trade balance from energy and capital goods.

Moroccans living abroad who are planning a property purchase, a business venture or a return to the country can build on these trends, while keeping an eye on future updates from the central bank and upcoming government policy decisions.

For more detailed and up-to-date data, readers can consult Bank Al-Maghrib’s official website, as well as Canal212’s dedicated guide to practical procedures for Moroccans abroad.

For more context, readers can follow Canal212 news for Moroccans abroad.

For official updates, readers can check the relevant official source.