Oil at $116 a barrel: what really changes for your budget in Morocco

With oil 116 dollars Morocco could have faced a wave of price hikes, yet inflation remains surprisingly low, a key signal for Moroccans living abroad who finance a large share of household spending back home.

Oil 116 dollars Morocco: rain helps contain inflation

Brent crude was trading at 116 dollars a barrel on 22 September, around 70% higher than at the start of July, after peaking near 132 dollars on 15 September, according to the latest economic update from the Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts (DEPF).

Despite this energy shock, Morocco’s consumer price index had risen by only 0.3% by the end of August. The main explanation lies in the 2026 farming season.

Cereal production is estimated at 90 million quintals, compared with 43.1 million a year earlier. Dam filling levels reached 66.1% on 21 September, against 32.8% on the same date in 2025.

This strong agricultural year pushed food prices down by 1.7% by end-August. The drop offset higher non-food prices (+1.7%), driven mainly by transport costs (+3.7%), which are highly sensitive to oil.

A breather for households, not for the energy bill

For families in Morocco, and for members of the diaspora planning holidays or a return, stable food prices provide some short-term relief. Grocery spending remains broadly under control, even if moving around costs more.

On 18 September, the government announced a new 30-day exceptional support package for road transport professionals. The goal is to cushion part of the diesel price surge and limit its knock-on effect on passenger and freight transport fares.

But this shield comes at a price for the broader economy. By the end of July, imports had risen by 15.9% to 544 billion dirhams, while exports grew by 8.4% to 299.3 billion.

• Trade deficit: 244.7 billion dirhams (+26.5%)
• Energy bill: +29.1%
• Travel receipts: 79 billion dirhams (+13.4%)
• Remittances from Moroccans abroad: 74.8 billion dirhams (+8.1% by end-July)

Together, tourism revenues and remittances from Moroccans abroad amount to 153.8 billion dirhams, or 62.9% of the trade deficit, down from 71.8% a year earlier. Even though transfers are increasing, the diaspora is covering a smaller share of the country’s external gap.

What this means for Moroccans living abroad

In this context of oil 116 dollars Morocco still offers, for now, relatively moderate domestic inflation, which matters for real estate, investment or return plans you might be considering.

Domestic demand remains resilient, supported by remittances from Moroccans abroad and by consumer loans (+4.5%). Public investment spending rose by 11.4% to 75.7 billion dirhams by the end of August. Imports of capital goods jumped by 20.8%, and equipment loans by 30.8%, showing that major projects are still moving forward.

For Moroccans living abroad, several practical takeaways emerge:

• Food expenses during visits to Morocco should remain relatively stable in the short term.
• Transport costs (fuel, taxis, buses) are more likely to weigh on your holiday budget.
• Remittances in dirhams still have a strong impact on family purchasing power, in a low-inflation context.
• Productive investment projects can benefit from the current momentum in equipment and infrastructure.

The big question is how long this phase will last, where rain cushions the shock but not the bill. If high oil prices persist, the state will have less room to keep renewing support schemes for transport, and the widening trade deficit could weigh more heavily on economic policy.

Moroccans abroad considering a return, an investment or a property purchase should therefore monitor energy prices and government measures closely. Official portals dedicated to Moroccans abroad (mre.gov.ma) and our Canal212 guide on key procedures can help you adjust your plans over the coming months.

For more context, readers can follow Canal212 news for Moroccans abroad.