This update focuses on EBRD Morocco economy. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has confirmed the positive momentum of the Moroccan economy, ranking it among the most resilient in the SEMED region for 2026, a signal closely watched by investors and Moroccans living abroad.
EBRD Morocco economy: stronger growth outlook for 2026
In its latest regional economic outlook, the EBRD forecasts growth of 4.8% for Morocco in 2026. This is an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point compared with its June forecast.
For 2027, the institution expects a slight moderation, with growth at 3.9%, 0.1 point lower than its previous projection. Even with this slowdown, the country remains among the top performers in its neighborhood.
The EBRD notes that Morocco’s trajectory contrasts with the overall SEMED region, which is expected to contract by 0.7% in 2026 before a technical rebound in 2027 driven by specific crisis-hit economies.
Agriculture rebound powering the recovery
According to the EBRD, much of the rebound is linked to the recovery of the agricultural sector. After several years of drought, agricultural output has surged by 18.4% year-on-year.
This jump supported economic activity in the first half of 2026 and offset the slowdown recorded in industry and construction over the same period.
In the first quarter of 2026, GDP growth was slightly below the level of a year earlier, at 4.6% versus 5.0%. The bank attributes this gap to weaker investment after an exceptionally strong year.
Low inflation and cautious monetary policy
The EBRD also stresses price stability. Average inflation stood at just 0.5% over the first six months of 2026, despite a temporary energy-driven spike.
In this environment, Bank Al-Maghrib kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, reflecting the geopolitical uncertainties affecting the region. The central bank is seeking to balance support for growth with the need to keep prices under control.
For Moroccans abroad and potential investors, low and stable inflation is crucial when planning travel budgets, housing purchases or business projects in the country.
Solid external accounts, MRE transfers in focus
Morocco’s external accounts remained solid at the start of 2026. The current account deficit was contained at 1.2% of GDP in the first quarter.
Two main factors explain this performance:
- rising tourism revenues as foreign arrivals increase;
- resilient remittance flows from Moroccans residing abroad.
These remittances help finance domestic consumption and part of private investment, while easing pressure on external balances. For the diaspora, the EBRD’s assessment confirms that their transfers are feeding into an economy viewed as robust by an international financial institution.
Public finances under control
On the fiscal side, the government is targeting a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP for 2026, in line with its initial goal. Public debt is expected to ease slightly from 66.6% of GDP in 2025 to 66.4% in 2026.
For Moroccans living abroad who are considering returning, buying property or starting a business, this trajectory reinforces the picture of a broadly stable macroeconomic environment, even if regional risks remain.
A positive signal, but one to monitor
By placing Morocco among the most resilient economies in its coverage area, the EBRD sends a positive signal to the markets. This external endorsement can support confidence among local and diaspora investors.
However, these projections depend on how regional geopolitics evolve, on climate-related risks and on the continuation of reforms. Moroccans abroad who follow developments in the home economy should therefore also monitor indicators and analyses published by national institutions such as Bank Al-Maghrib and the High Commission for Planning.
Those preparing an investment or a return are advised to rely on up-to-date official data and to consult practical resources such as Canal212’s guide to key procedures for Moroccans living abroad.
For more context, readers can follow Canal212 news for Moroccans abroad.
For official updates, readers can check the relevant official source.
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